Recession Fears, Ukraine War, China Tensions: The Next Big Risk for Markets

Investing is a business of managing risk for the long term. In a year where recession fears abound, a war in Ukraine rages on for a second year, and geopolitical tensions across the globe are boiling under the surface we asked Boaz Weinstein, Ida Liu and David Rubenstein what they think the next risk is for markets. 

Read the story on Bloomberg.com: https://trib.al/n8HK2CD

The West Fights Back!

When the Biden administration passed the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips and Science Act for clean energy and tech last year, Americas trade allies in Europe and Asia were surprised. Now they are scrambling for ways to catch up. 

Are western economies in a war of subsidies with each other and China over technology and green infrastructure?

Global fears over China’s struggling economy

The US and China have begun talks to try to improve relations between the world’s two biggest economies. 

Bilateral trade is worth hundreds of billions of pounds a year and China’s huge spending power is critical to global financial stability. 

But the country is experiencing signs of a new economic downturn. Youth unemployment is rising, exports have been falling and property investment is down. 

Clive Myrie presents BBC News at Ten reporting by China correspondent Stephen McDonell.

Musk Ultimatum to Taiwan Imperils War-Proof Internet

As Taiwan looks to bolster protection of its communication infrastructure, Elon Musk and his Starlink network are one clear solution. But, the billionaire’s deep ties with China and a demand for complete control of any Taiwan venture are proving to be problematic. Jamie Tarabay reports on Bloomberg Television.

The future of war

New technology is transforming the way wars are fought, and not just in Ukraine. 

As tension increases between China and America over Taiwan, what does the future of war look like?

Why Tesla’s China Ties Could Be a Problem for Elon Musk’s Twitter

Elon Musk’s new ownership of Twitter could be affected by the ties one of his other companies, Tesla, has to China. The electric-vehicle company sources materials and builds and sells its cars there. But Beijing is often sensitive about what is said about it on social media. Could this affect Mr. Musk’s plans for content moderation on Twitter? WSJ Heard on the Street Europe Editor Stephen Wilmot joins host Zoe Thomas to discuss.

U.S. vs. China: A Metaverse Divided Over Design and Rules

The metaverse race is heating up in China. Just like Meta and Microsoft in the U.S., Chinese firms such as Baidu and Tencent are investing in the nascent industry, but strict tech regulations mean China’s virtual worlds are set to offer very different user experiences.

China in Africa: should the West be worried?

In the past 20 years, China has built ever closer bonds with African nations. It has spent billions transforming infrastructure across the continent, and extending its influence into politics and society. It even placed its only overseas military base there. How worried should the West be?

Why Global Supply Chains May Never Be the Same

Every day, millions of sailors, truck drivers, longshoremen, warehouse workers and delivery drivers keep mountains of goods moving into stores and homes to meet consumers’ increasing expectations of convenience. But this complex movement of goods underpinning the global economy is far more vulnerable than many imagined.

Watch this WSJ Documentary.

Evergrande: the end of China's property boom

The rapid expansion of China's property sector was powered by a great migration from the farms to the cities - and built on cheap credit. The FT tells the story of Evergrande, the most indebted property developer in the world, which now stands on the brink of collapse. It's a story that changes the outlook for China's position as the locomotive of global economic growth. But is this China's Lehman Brothers moment?

Crypto exchanges refuse to block Russian users

Amid a wave of firms cancelling services in Russia, cryptocurrency exchanges are standing by what they call "financial freedom". This as the conflict in Ukraine continues to weigh heavy on markets causing stocks to slump in the beginning of the week. We'll break it all down. And China is facing mounting pressure as the world's second-most powerful economy in the wake of the Ukraine crisis and trade woes.

Digital geopolitics - Russia is trying to build its own great firewall

Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has portrayed his aggression toward Ukraine as pushing back against Western advances. For some time he has been doing much the same online. 

He has long referred to the internet as a “CIA project”. His deep belief that the enemy within and the enemy without are in effect one and the same means that if Alexei Navalny, Mr Putin’s foremost internal foe, uses YouTube—his video of the president’s seaside palace was viewed more than 120m times—then YouTube and its corporate parent, Google, are enemies, too.

Faced with such “aggression”, Mr Putin wants a Russian internet that is secure against external threat and internal opposition. He is trying to bring that about on a variety of fronts: through companies, the courts and technology itself.

Jointly with China, Russia has stalled UN talks aimed at defining responsible state behaviour in cyberspace, instead insisting on “information sovereignty”—code for doing what ever it pleases.

Read THE ECONOMIST's full analysis HERE.

Tariff evasion on imports from China

 

"An easy way to avoid Tariffs? Make or produce your goods and products in the good old USA. It’s very simple!” 

In the days when Twitter was the main medium for presidential proclamations, that was what Donald Trump recommended to companies using China as a manufacturing base. He was half right: avoiding tariffs has proved to be quite simple. What he failed to see, though, was that avoidance is an eminently viable strategy for companies staying put in China.

The scale of avoidance is, to use a non-technical term, huge. A giant discrepancy that has opened up between Chinese and American trade data provides a window onto the tariff-dodging that has occurred over the past three years since America slapped duties on Chinese products.

So what is happening and how are they doing it? Find out more HERE. 

CBDC Digital Yuan Deployment To Massively Impact Cross-Border Policy Regulators' Decisions

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been a global front-runner in its creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) through the digital yuan's inception.

Also known as the e-CNY, the PBOC recently released the pilot version of its e-CNY app in China's Apple and Android app stores. The release of this app to selected users is particularly interesting given the app's current "research and development pilot phase", as indicated in a notice displayed when the app is downloaded. 

Nevertheless, the timing of this app release gives the world excellent insight into China's e-CNY ambitions, particularly with the 2022 Winter Olympics and the Chinese New Year holiday around the corner. 

Want to find out more? Click HERE. 

What will China do in 2022?

China’s Xi Jinping seems likely to have his third term in office ratified by the Communist Party Congress in 2022. What could that mean for China, and for the rest of the world?

 

China Hits Top Influencer With $210 Million Fine Over Taxes

One of China's top e-commerce influencers has been ordered to pay an unprecedented $210 million fine for tax evasion. She's one of the country's most popular online retailers reportedly generating sales of $4.8 billion last year.

Chinese Spies Accused of Using Huawei in Secret Telecom Hack

The U.S. government has warned for years that products from Chinese tech giant Huawei Technologies Co. pose a national security risk. Now, a Bloomberg investigation has found a key piece of evidence explaining why. Bloomberg's Jamie Tarabay reports on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia."

Evergrande Says It’s Back to Work, But Homeowners Say Not Fast Enough

The world’s most indebted real-estate firm Evergrande has embarked on a social media campaign to show construction has resumed and says it’s doing whatever it takes to deliver homes. WSJ compares these posts with ones from upset buyers.

 

Dimon Jokes JPMorgan Likely to Outlast China's Communist Party

JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon cracked a joke about China during a panel discussion in Boston, but will China see the funny side? Bloomberg's Patrick Winters reports on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East."

Is India The Next China?

Although India has lagged behind China since both countries opened up to the world in the 1980s, the Indian government is now taking steps to finally challenge its biggest economic competitor.