Showing posts with label Black Swan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Black Swan. Show all posts

Friday 2 October 2015

Black Swans and Risk Management: Prepare Now for the Unthinkable


From GARP –
“How does a seemingly impossible event become a harsh or startling reality? In business, its occurrence may not be as random, infrequent or unpredictable as one might be led to believe.

At the 2015 MetricStream GRC Summit in Washington, D.C., Nassim Nicholas Taleb, best-selling author of The Black Swan and Antifragile, discussed this concept in great detail. According to Taleb, Black Swans are events with very low probability of occurrence, yet come with extreme and often catastrophic impact when they do happen.

In the risk management and compliance space, Taleb argued that our corporations, industries, and economies have become very fragile – a breeding ground for a Black Swan event to occur and to have devastating and lasting impact.”

Read more>>


Wednesday 12 February 2014

Black Swans, Payments and 1982

From Payments.com

:The payments Black Swan that we’ve all been cautiously awaiting has finally arrived. True to form, it caught everyone by surprise, and it has the potential to change the course of the payments ecosystem for perhaps decades to come.

That Black Swan? The Target data breach.”

read more>>

Thursday 12 September 2013

Disaster Recovery Lessons Learned from 9/11

From American Banker   
“A survivor of the collapse of the World Trade Center, who has just written a book about harrowing escapes on 9/11, shares some of what he learned that horrific day.”

Thursday 28 February 2013

What we are reading … 28th February 2013

South Africa: Spark adds to national ATM network http://dld.bz/ckwMV

Risk Management: Carnival Cruise Lines: What They Should Have Done http://shar.es/joDa1

Bank Failures Down in 2013 http://twb.io/YvT6A6

Consumers Spend Less When Using A Single Account, Study Finds http://huff.to/13gZ5Kq

ABN Amro penalised over fat finger client trading error http://dld.bz/ckFDa

Three Ways Banks can Support Innovation in Their Markets http://www.banking2020.com/2013/02/19/bank-innovation/

Imaging Brings Coveted Ease of Use to Mobile Banking: Study http://dld.bz/ckjbZ

Find those black swans, because they may find you first http://shar.es/jo8w0

P2P Payments Take Aim at Checks, Not Cash http://bankinnovation.net/2013/02/p2p-payments-take-aim-at-checks-not-cash/
Do we need more banks or bigger banks? http://shar.es/joEgr

Saturday 16 February 2013

Black Swan Event: Meteor Injures 1,200 in Russia

Almost at the same time as an asteroid came dangerously close (in NASA’s terms) to earth, so came the news about a meteorite streaming through the sky over Russia’s Chelyabinsk region. So far, it is estimated that the shockwave has caused severe damage to property and over 1,200 are reported injured, though that number continues to climb.

The meteorite landed in a lake near Chebarkul, a town in Chelyabinsk region, and Friday morning's dramatic passage was witnessed hundreds of kilometres away.

The explosion rivalled a nuclear blast, but the meteor was still too small for advance-warning networks to spot.

This is a typical Black Swan event that unfortunately cannot be prepared for.

Just to remind readers, a Black Swan must have the following three attributes.

  1. It is an outlier, beyond the realm of regular expectations, because experience can’t point to its possibility.
  2. It carries an extreme impact.
  3. After the fact we produce explanations for its occurrence, making it explainable and predictable and by extension, preventable.
As Morgan O’Rourke pointed out in a 2011 piece in “Risk Management”, “If a large space rock chooses to head our way there really isn’t much we can do about it, regardless of Bruce Willis’ formidable skill set.”

Wired backs that up, stating, “All the advanced air defenses that humanity has invested in? The interceptor missile that are (sometimes) able to stop an adversary missile from impacting? The early-warning monitoring systems that are supposed to give humanity enough time to plan a response? They are useless, useless against a meteorite onslaught.”

A 20,000-strong team has been sent to the Ural mountains as part of a rescue and clean-up operation, Russia's emergency, ministry says.





This wasn’t Russia’s first encounter with a massive meteorite. On July 30, 1908, a devastating explosion occurred in the skies over Siberia with the strength 1,000 times that of the Hiroshima blast at the end of WWII. Today’s blast in Russia is now the second largest meteorite to hit earth in the last century or so The 1908 event ranks as first.
A clip from the History Channel explains:

 
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