Bangko Sentral Deputy Gov. Diwa Guinigundo said the bank saw money remitted by the workers increasing by about 8% in 2011, matching the projected 8- percent growth in 2010.
“But we have to review that,” Guinigundo added.
Remittances in 2010 were projected to reach $18.7 billion, based on the 8-percent growth assumption from $17.3 billion in 2009.
Data showed that remittances in the first 10 months of 2010 rose 7.9% to $15.5 billion. The bulk of the remittances came from Filipinos living or working in the United States, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Japan, the United Kingdom, United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Italy, Germany and Norway.
A projected 8-percent growth in remittances in 2011 will bring the total to $20.196 billion this year. The projected figure represents only those captured by banking channels.
A local bank also expects remittances to grow 5 to 10 percent this year. “Consequently, this could continue to underpin consumer spending which accounted for about 78 percent of the Philippine economy,” said Mike Ricafort, assistant vice president and head of domestic and global research of Rizal Commercial Banking Corp.
Bangko Sentral said the deployment outlook for Filipinos overseas remained upbeat given the continuing bilateral talks with some host countries, aimed at matching manpower requirements with the competencies of Filipino workers.
Remittances, which contribute more than 10 percent to the gross national product, are expected to help the economy achieve strong growth this year and support the appreciation of the peso against the US dollar.
Guinigundo said the peso was expected to trade at 43 to 45 against the US dollar this year while the gross domestic product would grow within a range of 7 to 8 percent.
RCBC, meanwhile, expects the peso to range 41.50 to 43.50 against the US dollar by December this year.
Remittances are seen to keep the country’s balance of payments in a surplus in 2011, although this would not be as strong as the $13.2 billion recorded in the January-November period last year, Guinigundo said.
The recovery in imports this year is seen to result in a wider trade deficit and a narrower BoP surplus, according to the government’s economic managers.
Exports in 2010 grew faster than imports, translating into a lower trade deficit. Total imports in the first 10 months of 2010 grew 26.3 percent year-on-year to $44.826 billion while exports surged 37.2 percent to $43.084 billion.
