Government regulation, tighter competition, and shifting customer demands have taken a toll on revenues and profits; forging optimal business and operating models is key to success, according to BCG.
Traditionally strong payments businesses have shown severe weakness in recent years, the report says. Although many of these businesses are beginning to recover, banks must determine whether current business models (target customer segments, product portfolios, regions, and channels) and operating models (target processes, IT, sourcing, and organization) are well suited for shifting industry dynamics. Winning strategies will vary, depending partly on whether target markets are mature in terms of overall payments infrastructure and sophistication, or still developing, because the two types of markets will evolve differently going forward. In either case, banks seeking to expand their payments businesses must strive to minimize organizational complexity.
“The size of the prize is too large not to take action,” said Niclas Storz, a BCG partner and a coauthor of the report. “We estimate that by 2020, the global payments market will be worth $782 trillion in noncash transaction values and $492 billion in transaction revenues.”
Global payments revenues, which typically constitute one-third to one-half of most banks’ total revenues, fell at a compound annual rate of 7 percent from the end of 2008 through 2010, according to the report. BCG defines payments revenues as direct and indirect income generated by any payment service, including transaction-specific revenues as well as card and account maintenance fees and spread income generated from current accounts (also known as checking or demand-deposit accounts). Fees for overdrafts and nonsufficient funds are considered transaction-specific revenue.
The report examines global retail-payments markets on a regional basis, while exploring the wholesale transaction-banking market through a single, global lens.
Retail Payments in Europe
European retail-payments revenues fell from $173 billion in 2008 to $136 billion in 2010, according to the report. To help foster a rebound, banks must exploit the structural differences in payments markets throughout Europe. In Western Europe, given its highly evolved payments infrastructure, the focus will be on refining operating models. By contrast, in Central and Eastern Europe, the key will be forging winning business models.
Retail Payments in the Americas
In the United States, the payments industry has undergone considerable disruption, the report says. From the end of 2008 through 2010, total payments revenues fell at a compound annual rate of 4 percent, despite steady payments values and a 3 percent annual rise in volumes. Total revenues are expected to grow in 2011 but will remain about 6 percent below the 2007 peak level of $162 billion—a level not likely to be surpassed for another few years given the adverse effect of regulatory changes on payments revenues (such as debit card revenues).
Moreover, new financial regulations such as the Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility, and Disclosure (CARD) Act of 2009, modifications to Regulation E, and the Durbin Amendment (within the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010) will have a dramatic effect on U.S. payments businesses for years to come. Banks in the U.S. will have to rethink their business models and develop new value propositions, the report says.
“As much as $25 billion in annual retail-transaction revenues will be regulated away from U.S. financial institutions as the new guidelines take effect,” said Carl Rutstein, a BCG senior partner and a coauthor of the report. “To get back on track, banks in the U.S. need to transform their credit-card businesses, move beyond the checking account to deepen client relationships, and make sure they stay smart and nimble in the digital financial-services game.”
Retail Payments in Asia-Pacific
In Asia-Pacific, retail payments are primed for growth, the report says. But banks will have to tailor their business and operating models in order to balance growth aspirations with efficiency goals. In the mature Asia-Pacific countries, growth discussions must focus on existing customers and opportunities to increase share of wallet by improving the convenience of payment solutions for consumers and merchants. Yet the picture is different in emerging markets.
“Growth in emerging Asia-Pacific markets will be generated by the gradual financial inclusion of unbanked consumers and the rapidly expanding footprint of the electronic-payments infrastructure,” said Stefan Mohr, a BCG partner and a coauthor of the report. “Shifts in spending behavior and payment preferences, especially on the part of the emerging digital generation and those consumers moving from rural to urban areas, will also be a prime factor.”
Global Wholesale Transaction Banking
In the post crisis era, transaction banking will remain a significant opportunity for financial institutions, according to the report. Wholesale payments volume is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 9 percent globally from year-end 2010 through 2020, and total wholesale transaction revenues are expected to increase from $64 billion to $119 billion. But despite the strengths of transaction-banking businesses, there are hurdles to overcome. Getting different silos within the bank—such as the corporate-banking sales force, cash-management and trade-service specialists, and operations and IT groups—to align around making transaction banking a top priority can be a tall order. Banks need to better define their core target markets (from both a segment and a regional perspective) and smooth out uneven customer experiences across channels and regions.